The *4pop models (pronounced ‘star-four-pop’) are a family of computer models that try to simulate how species use landscapes.
They are termed ‘process-based‘ or ‘mechanistic’ models because they simulate the processes of foraging, reproduction, survival and dispersal that happen during species’ lives.
They predict the relative abundance of species, where they might be living, and which parts of the landscape are expected to be important to them.
They can also be used to predict how landscape changes might affect species, taking into account landscape composition, configuration and ecological time lags.
*4pop models work by combining maps of the landscape with information on the life histories of species, the habitat resources they require and their movement abilities.
This information comes a variety of sources:
- remote sensed landcover data
- on-the-ground habitat mapping
- expert knowledge of species’ habitat requirements
- empirical measurements from field studies
For this reason, *4pop models are always co-developed with species experts to ensure they represent as much as possible our understanding of species’ lives.
So far, more than 70 people have been involved in *4pop model development, including academic researchers, NGO staff, ecological consultants, citizen scientists and conservation volunteers.
Our model development follows four key principles:
- ecocentric – we are guided by the needs and experiences of the modelled species
- inclusive – we welcome and combine multiple forms of knowledge
- respectful – we offer the models, not to replace, but to be considered alongside other sources of information
- validated – we always compare the models’ predictions to real-life species observations to check that their predictions are realistic
For us, a model is a living tool, to represent and test our collective understanding of the real world. It is therefore always a creative work in progress.
The aim of the models is to:
- share knowledge and increase understanding of species’ needs
- help decision-makers explore how different species might be affected by landscape changes
- help people to represent and advocate for species’ needs in decision-making processes
These aims often take us into new collaborative spaces, as we work across disciplines and sectors to explore how *4pop approaches might be integrated with different ways of thinking, knowing and deciding.
As with all computer models, there are many reasons why, despite our best efforts, real-life species abundance and distributions may differ from *4pop model predictions. No decisions should ever be made solely on the basis of *4pop model predictions – on-the-ground ecological surveys and integration of local ecological knowledge are always required before making any landscape-level or site-level decisions.
To date, *4pop model development and applications have been kindly funded by:
*4pop models 